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daveonWorldwide Mobile Device Sales to End Users in Q2 2010 (thousands of units)
| Company | '10 Units | 10 Mkt Share | '09 Units | '09 Mkt Share |
| Nokia | 111,473.8 | 34.2 | 105,413.4 | 36.8 |
| Samsung | 65,328.2 | 20.1 | 55,430.1 | 19.3 |
| LG | 29,366.7 | 9.0 | 30,497.0 | 10.7 |
| RIM | 11,228.8 | 3.4 | 7,678.9 | 2.7 |
| Sony Ericsson | 11,008.5 | 3.4 | 13,574.3 | 4.7 |
| Motorola | 9,109.4 | 2.8 | 15,947.8 | 5.6 |
| Apple | 8,743.0 | 2.7 | 5,434.7 | 1.9 |
| HTC | 5,908.8 | 1.8 | 2,471.0 | 0.9 |
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Date: 2010-08-24 10:36 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-24 11:17 pm (UTC)They're probably going to be able to stabilize their position through their "Droid" devices which are selling strongly in North America - but their core problem is they didn't have anything to follow the success of the RAZR which dated pretty quickly.
The interesting battle will be to see if Nokia can stabilize and not end up slipping below Samsung.
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Date: 2010-08-24 11:24 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-24 11:27 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 12:01 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 12:09 am (UTC)Plus unlike SEMC and Moto who are trying to build a low end play on Android, they won't have to compete with a fragmented apps scene with a pile of apps not running on the lower end devices.
Nokia *could* box clever with this at the lower ends if their QT/WRT strategy works for making OVI look worthwhile to punters.
But both Nokia and Samsung have the same problem in attracting and keeping indie app developers.
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Date: 2010-08-25 03:22 pm (UTC)Samsung actually started on the developer relations thing a while back in the UK at least; as you probably know! are they any good at it though?
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Date: 2010-08-25 04:29 pm (UTC)The real problem currently is the test team for Bada apps in Seoul. They've been over whelmed by the numbers of people sending in apps and they're working to a set of ill-defined test criteria executed by an inexperienced team for whom English isn't their first language. So it's a combination of the Apple "it must be just so" stuff and purely random crap. i.e. our TripIt app for Bada has been bounced twice now because the testers don't understand what TripIt is and keep failing the actual TripIt service because it doesn't work the way they want it to.
My favourite two are a failure that "users won't like this" and "we refuse to sign up for a test account" - the later was amusing given that they'd already had 2 test accounts.
They are making a serious effect to fix that, and I think that with that Bada and Samsung will be major players.
Nokia are doing some clever stuff around the Web Run Time - at least based on what I've seen so far. The question is whether it'll be enough. I don't know. But Nokia have a lot of room to maneuverer.
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Date: 2010-08-25 04:34 pm (UTC)Nokia has room to manoeuvre; but they do spend a lot of time reversing into dustbins and fences...
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Date: 2010-08-25 04:45 pm (UTC)That said, we got an email from the head of QA at Samsung a week or so ago to personally apologise for the mess they'd made of this. That's a pretty astounding move for a Korean company and you can bet that people lost their jobs because that had to go out.
I'm putting even odds on Nokia sorting this out at the moment. We're seeing them doing the right stuff, the question is if they manage to get the marketing right.
The challenge is more that people believe that the only Smartphone in the world is the iPhone and that's purely Apple's marketing machine and the Reality Distortion Field in action. I had an argument the other weekend with somebody who was so certain that the iPhone was the #1 Phone in the world by sales now that they refused to believe any other data. They also believed that the most important feature was the screen resolution...
It's an interesting psychological effect.
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Date: 2010-08-25 05:23 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 05:25 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 01:40 am (UTC)I think Nokia are still strong in the non-smartphone sector, and I know Symbian is still the best selling smartphone OS, but I think unless they can come up with something innovative they're going to see the Symbian phones rapidly lose ground to the others.
We have far too many smartphone OSs: Apple, Android, Symbian, RIM, Palm webOS, Windows Mobile (I'm sure I'm forgetting one). I suspect at least two of those will have to go, or possibly end up as niche markets.
I think RiM/Blackberry currently have the momentum for the corporate users. I thought MS might challenge that with Windows Mobile 7, but it looks like MS have targeted the consumer end, which I think is a mistake, as it's going to be a more difficult arena to break into. If they got AD integration and centralised management (especially offering the ability to push out standardised apps to all phones in an organisation), they could really put it up to RiM, but without that, I don't see it taking off.
I see Apple and Android taking the lions share of the Smartphone market. Symbian should hang on for a while, but I think mainly among regular phone users who see the appeal of a few smartphone features. It's hard to see Palm making a comeback, even with the might of HP behind them.
I'm sure Nokia won't sit down and wait for Symbian to die. Perhaps they plan to move to their Maemo platform, or try to revamp Symbian into something more modern that can compete with Android. Or perhaps I'm misjudging them entirely, but currently it seems Android has the momentum and Nokia don't.
It would be interesting to see the stats when you cut out dumb phones.
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Date: 2010-08-25 03:28 pm (UTC)BlackBerry has the business momentum but iPhone and Android are both pushing at that (user perception more than actual feature parity but with the rise of BYOD user perception is all); I'm still iffy about Windows Phone 7. It was intended to be a business phone the consumer was happy to carry and a consumer phone the business was happy to see you bring to work - but the slow rollout of key business features (copy and paste, private enterprise wide deployment) hampers that. WM 6.5 *had* AD integration, full remote management, multiple third party management tools and they haven't had time to get that ready for WP7.
Nokia plans to move to Maemo/Meego - at which point you have to factor in Intel and the LG Meego phones and a whole new ball of wax. This isn't going to simplify itself any time soon.
Android momentum - yes, but Nokia has the *density* ;-) in both senses...
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Date: 2010-08-25 04:36 pm (UTC)WP7 - I'm iffy too, but they're really convinced. The problem I have is that Terry Myserson and his team are just clueless about the mobile market and behaving just like the team before last were behaving in 2002/3...
Nokia's strategy is to move a level of abstraction above the OS - so they don't mind if it's Maemo/Meego/S60 or whatever - as long as you write in Web Run Time /QT it'll run. I'll get back to you when we've got that working off simulator and let you know how it works.
Android will probably end up with a significant market share - assuming something horrible doesn't happen with the Oracle law suit.
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Date: 2010-08-25 04:44 pm (UTC)the WinPhone guys are less interested in talking to me than on any previous release ever, but my arms-length view is that it's very nice but too little, too late. Are they back at the We Know All Puny Carriers stage or just Shut Up Puny Handset Makers?
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Date: 2010-08-25 04:53 pm (UTC)WP7 are both "We know all puny carriers" and "shit up puny handset makers" stages at the same time. Which is why all the sane carrier specialists they had work at Vodafone or elsewhere and they're having to hire a new OEM relations team.
I had a beer with some of their major ISVs last night on WM5/6 and they've been completely cut out of the loop for in ROM apps, with all the in-ROM stuff going to a bunch of digital design agencies... the very thought of that gives me the creeping horrors. But we'll see how good the agencies are at Silverlight on C#.
The people I do know are very bullish that they expect to see a bazillion apps sent in for approval when they open the store in October... I'm not holding my breath.
I had a protracted play with one a couple of weeks ago and... well... it was ok, but really nothing all that special. I think the Bada Wave I have is actually an easier to use device. Some of the UI is, in my opinion, badly thought out, like the Contacts handler. The tiles look plain nasty compared to a proper widget based set of home pages. The Bing integration is ok, but without Cut and Paste it's crippled.
And that's without getting into my rant about Silverlight and C# managed code.
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Date: 2010-08-25 04:56 pm (UTC)Silverlight is lovely for toy apps; now build a browser or a navigation app in it... there are some *excellent* Silverlight design agencies doing some fab *desktop* stuff; if they can translate that to mobile, cool. But only *5* email titles on screen at once - that's like a frikking inch per title!
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Date: 2010-08-25 05:07 pm (UTC)Being able to write a decent desktop app while you wallow in so much memory that crap code doesn't matter is one thing. Doing the same on a mobile where the APIs are constrained and performance is a pig is something else entirely.
I know for a fact the BSP team at Qualcomm were pressing Microsoft to switch to the dual-core Snapdragons for the WP7 devices quite late in the game because the UI wasn't performing well.
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Date: 2010-08-25 05:09 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 05:17 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 05:24 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 05:34 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 04:37 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 04:59 pm (UTC)<img="http://www.canalys.com/pr/images/r2010081.gif">
<img="http://www.canalys.com/pr/images/r2010033.gif">
don't have European figures handy but they're different again (better for RIM I think, and Symbian still leads) - central Europe and ME/A aren't going smartphone (other than symbian) enough to matter much yet in terms of changing the % points.
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Date: 2010-08-25 12:05 am (UTC)It is *fun* commentating this decade's phone wars
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Date: 2010-08-25 12:07 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 07:27 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 03:32 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 04:38 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 04:39 pm (UTC)and won't that be an interesting combination...
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Date: 2010-08-25 04:55 pm (UTC)To be honest the Nokia suits still beat the crap out of me. Say what you like about Nokia they fought Qualcomm to a standstill over the CDMA wars and that's practically never done.
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Date: 2010-08-25 05:00 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 04:40 pm (UTC)Historically they had real build quality problems - we used to joke that you had to buy HTC phones in 6 packs so you could use them for a year. They seem to be getting around that, but I'll be honest I'm probably not going to own one that I had to buy ever again.
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Date: 2010-08-25 04:51 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 05:34 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 06:52 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 02:22 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 04:40 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 04:51 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 05:00 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 06:00 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 06:50 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2010-08-25 07:46 pm (UTC)