Has anybody done any number crunching on what the outcome of this election would have been under the Alternative Vote system that's apparently on the table?
It's hard to be sure, because you don't know what people's second preferences would have been, and nor do you know how many would have changed their first preference if they'd been able to choose a second preference to fall back to.
Mm, this. The ERS acknowledge these problems in the aticle linked above; but they don't go on to draw the reasonable conclusion "therefore, these projections are almost entirely worthless".
I think the proportion of people currently voting 'unnaturally' is really difficult to estimate. And I wouldn't trust any survey that sought to determine it to match what would actually happen in real election situation.
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I think the proportion of people currently voting 'unnaturally' is really difficult to estimate. And I wouldn't trust any survey that sought to determine it to match what would actually happen in real election situation.