Alternative Vote...

[daveon]

Has anybody done any number crunching on what the outcome of this election would have been under the Alternative Vote system that's apparently on the table? 

Comments

[pmcray.livejournal.com]

http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/news.php?ex=0&nid=469

[coalescent.livejournal.com]

Yes. Not very different. So expect the Lib Dems to be keener on the Labour proposal (with AV now followed by referendum on other forms) than the Tory one, at the moment.

[daveon.livejournal.com]

Yes, but I've always expected that that would be the case (in terms of Lib Dems generally being keener on a Labour alliance...)

Of course, there are some horrific risks there with public perception - although the Brown resignation has been handled magnificently.

I guess we'll see.

In the mean time I'd better remember to get a postal ballot for the re-run.

[drplokta]

It's hard to be sure, because you don't know what people's second preferences would have been, and nor do you know how many would have changed their first preference if they'd been able to choose a second preference to fall back to.

[undyingking.livejournal.com]

Mm, this. The ERS acknowledge these problems in the aticle linked above; but they don't go on to draw the reasonable conclusion "therefore, these projections are almost entirely worthless".

I think the proportion of people currently voting 'unnaturally' is really difficult to estimate. And I wouldn't trust any survey that sought to determine it to match what would actually happen in real election situation.