From the department of Are You Guys Living in the Same Universe as Me???

[daveon]

From Jerry Pournelle...

"The remarkable thing is that given the unpopular war, a President who does not project himself well and isn't charismatic at all, and the total economic collapse: given all that, the election was remarkably close. "

Errr...  As I understand by recent and even historical standards this wasn't really close at all. 

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Comments

[akirlu.livejournal.com]

Also? While *I* would agree that Shrub doesn't project himself well and isn't charismatic, that hasn't been the claim from the other side, nor from the "Liberal" media, during these eight years in the wasteland.

[sbisson.livejournal.com]

Having been in a press room with JP the day after the election, I have to say based on what I overheard, that's a very nuanced statement of his views on the election.

[del-c.livejournal.com]

fivethreeeight.com reports Obama with 52.3% of the popular vote, which isn't stunningly high. But I make that fourth out of the last ten elections, and eleventh out of the last twenty, so it's medium to high historically.

I think Pournelle's statement is a mushy one he can defend whatever the numbers, as statements of the form "considering X, Y was remarkably large/small" tend to be. He's at liberty to adjust the values of X and Y to meet any objections, retrospectively if need be. If McCain had taken the electoral college with 49% of the popular vote, Pournelle could still easily have said "The remarkable thing is that given the unpopular war, a President who does not project himself well and isn't charismatic at all, and the total economic collapse: given all that, McCain's victory is remarkably convincing."

In EC terms, it's seventh out of the last ten and fourteenth out of the last twenty, but that's probably more a reflection of all the elections, post-Reagan, being smaller in EC terms than historically usual (I think). Also, the correct comparison ought perhaps to exclude the overwhelming electoral college sweeps popular incumbent presidents tend to get in their second election, and compare only first-time elections.