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So that happened...
Nov. 12th, 2012 08:54 amI've been thinking about the election over the weekend. There are some aspects that trouble me which point, on the whole, to rocky times ahead for the GOP.
Way back in 1997 when Tony Blair swept to power, the Tories were a little confused. John Major, who I still, generally think was a decent person, basically stuck 2 fingers up at the fractious, riven party he'd been leading, and went to Lord's to watch the cricket. It took the Tories a decade to recover. Part of the problem was they concluded that the reason Major lost was he was too 'wooly' on issues like Europe and therefore not a TrueConservative(tm). That cost them the next 3 elections.
I'll be honest when Obama won in 2008, I thought the GOP Brand was so badly damaged that they'd have the same problem. I was both correct and wrong at the same time. They did tack to the right, however, in the 2010 midterms, where the bulk of the Democratic electorate didn't turn out, they won. This, I suspect, was at the core of the shock they had last Tuesday.
Romney had to tack pretty far to the right to see off Perry, Cain, Santorum and the others. I am sure his goal was always to tack back to the middle(ish) but given this was to be a turnout election, where the base would come out and win against a demoralized Democratic one, they had to keep the Tea Party and other fellow travelers on side. This meant staying pretty far to the right on many issues. Hence picking Ryan as VP, frankly, a dreadful choice compared to a Christie or Rubio.
They then had a bunch of insane primaries where traditional republicans were replaced with Tea Party acolytes You know you've a problem when the Democratic SuperPacs will support certain candidates. Then you've all the instances where stupid stuff was said and not recanted properly.
In my opinion, up to this point all of this could be managed. Except for one problem. The polls showed Obama ahead pretty much from May onwards. All the respected Poll Analyst systems, 538, Princeton, HorsesAss, all showed Obama with solid win chances. The logical thing would be to take that seriously and adjust your campaign accordingly. Instead, the GOP decided the polls were incorrect and moved forward on the assumption that the electorate of 2008/10 would turn out, and that Obama was too unpopular to win.
The disconnect from reality to enable this does boggle my mind but based on Karl Rove's melt down and the genuine shock from the likes of Dick Morris and Michael Barone, they really had bought their propaganda. A solid part of the blame for this can be laid at the feet of Fox News and the GOP Establishment. There was, a turning point in the election. The first debate. Romney looked reasonable. Now, I, personally, don't think Obama was all that bad. However, the Democratic base turned on him like a wolf pack on an injured member and he took notice. Compare and contrast that with the second debate where, frankly, Romney was destroyed. The prevailing narrative on Fox and in the GOP punditworld was that he was excellent, did a great job and that the President lost by looking petty. Ditto the VP debate where Biden 'looked crazy'... by the third debate where Romney was stunningly awful, the same narrative took hold. He looked like a CinC, he knew his stuff. None of the this was true. He sucked.
Looking at the poll trends, Obama was in danger for about a week after the first debate, before the Biden debate stopped the rot. This killed Carter in 1980 where the only debate was a week before the election, but Obama, as they say, had this. He took his criticism like a grown up, shock it off, made a joke of it and got on with business.
Another issue, which has cost the GOP two elections is they keep underestimating the guy. He was president of the Harvard Law Review. He got to be President. You want to make fun of him as a 'community organizer'? Well, I've got news for you. Getting people to vote for you involves organizing the community. Obama has been perfecting the process of identifying and registering voters since the early 1990s. He's been building IT and infrastructure since then. He has an election team of the BEST political strategists of this generation. Rove? Pah. Axelrod was the Patrician of Ankh fucking Morpork with the way he played them.
My advice? Ditch Norquist. Kick out the Tea Party. Focus on an actual sane fiscal message. Ditch the Social Conservatives. Focus on pro-business policies but that means oh so much more than cutting taxes and regulation. Start taking voters seriously. Otherwise this holiday in the wilderness could be a long one, and, looking at what happened to Thatcher's Tories and Blair's New Labour, that's not good for the country nor democracy.
Way back in 1997 when Tony Blair swept to power, the Tories were a little confused. John Major, who I still, generally think was a decent person, basically stuck 2 fingers up at the fractious, riven party he'd been leading, and went to Lord's to watch the cricket. It took the Tories a decade to recover. Part of the problem was they concluded that the reason Major lost was he was too 'wooly' on issues like Europe and therefore not a TrueConservative(tm). That cost them the next 3 elections.
I'll be honest when Obama won in 2008, I thought the GOP Brand was so badly damaged that they'd have the same problem. I was both correct and wrong at the same time. They did tack to the right, however, in the 2010 midterms, where the bulk of the Democratic electorate didn't turn out, they won. This, I suspect, was at the core of the shock they had last Tuesday.
Romney had to tack pretty far to the right to see off Perry, Cain, Santorum and the others. I am sure his goal was always to tack back to the middle(ish) but given this was to be a turnout election, where the base would come out and win against a demoralized Democratic one, they had to keep the Tea Party and other fellow travelers on side. This meant staying pretty far to the right on many issues. Hence picking Ryan as VP, frankly, a dreadful choice compared to a Christie or Rubio.
They then had a bunch of insane primaries where traditional republicans were replaced with Tea Party acolytes You know you've a problem when the Democratic SuperPacs will support certain candidates. Then you've all the instances where stupid stuff was said and not recanted properly.
In my opinion, up to this point all of this could be managed. Except for one problem. The polls showed Obama ahead pretty much from May onwards. All the respected Poll Analyst systems, 538, Princeton, HorsesAss, all showed Obama with solid win chances. The logical thing would be to take that seriously and adjust your campaign accordingly. Instead, the GOP decided the polls were incorrect and moved forward on the assumption that the electorate of 2008/10 would turn out, and that Obama was too unpopular to win.
The disconnect from reality to enable this does boggle my mind but based on Karl Rove's melt down and the genuine shock from the likes of Dick Morris and Michael Barone, they really had bought their propaganda. A solid part of the blame for this can be laid at the feet of Fox News and the GOP Establishment. There was, a turning point in the election. The first debate. Romney looked reasonable. Now, I, personally, don't think Obama was all that bad. However, the Democratic base turned on him like a wolf pack on an injured member and he took notice. Compare and contrast that with the second debate where, frankly, Romney was destroyed. The prevailing narrative on Fox and in the GOP punditworld was that he was excellent, did a great job and that the President lost by looking petty. Ditto the VP debate where Biden 'looked crazy'... by the third debate where Romney was stunningly awful, the same narrative took hold. He looked like a CinC, he knew his stuff. None of the this was true. He sucked.
Looking at the poll trends, Obama was in danger for about a week after the first debate, before the Biden debate stopped the rot. This killed Carter in 1980 where the only debate was a week before the election, but Obama, as they say, had this. He took his criticism like a grown up, shock it off, made a joke of it and got on with business.
Another issue, which has cost the GOP two elections is they keep underestimating the guy. He was president of the Harvard Law Review. He got to be President. You want to make fun of him as a 'community organizer'? Well, I've got news for you. Getting people to vote for you involves organizing the community. Obama has been perfecting the process of identifying and registering voters since the early 1990s. He's been building IT and infrastructure since then. He has an election team of the BEST political strategists of this generation. Rove? Pah. Axelrod was the Patrician of Ankh fucking Morpork with the way he played them.
My advice? Ditch Norquist. Kick out the Tea Party. Focus on an actual sane fiscal message. Ditch the Social Conservatives. Focus on pro-business policies but that means oh so much more than cutting taxes and regulation. Start taking voters seriously. Otherwise this holiday in the wilderness could be a long one, and, looking at what happened to Thatcher's Tories and Blair's New Labour, that's not good for the country nor democracy.
