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So was it all leading up to this then?
Jul. 14th, 2011 10:05 amObama has picked up a lot of criticism from his theoretical core supporters; single-payer, Guantanamo, Bush tax cuts... but as a lot of people have said before, you don't get where he did in Chicago politics without having a few skills. It's feeling like everything, especially since the Mid-Terms has been building up to this, even the budget capitulation.
The GOP telegraphed their moves far, far too publicly and far to openly. It's not so much a tell as a flashing neon sign. Starting with mis-reading what happened in November 2010 - it wasn't so much a swing of the public to the GOP and Tea Party as everybody else didn't turn out. The actual margins of the election "victory" only needed a few thousand votes to change and the outcome would have been far less certain.
Now they've got problems. The core of the GOP, the sane part, which, on a good day I suspect that Boehner and McConnell are part of, knows damn well they can't risk default. They've been clear that the goal is a 1 term Obama presidency, which was the real mistake. If he's going to be a one term president then he'll show them how to play chicken. Because Barack Obama has a career outside of politics that the likes of Cantor, Boehner, McConnell and others would have wet dreams about. He's going to be an international personality with speaking tours, books, non-exec directorship offers that make anything Ms Palin has got look, frankly, a bit pikey.
But for the career politician this is a nightmare. They know damn well they can't default - as Mitch McConnell correctly pointed out, albeit unwisely, there's few outcomes where this does't slam back onto the GOP and stick them with the economy (which, in my mind, is fair enough because a) it's their screw up to start with, and b) they've blocked practically everything that could help). Obama is certainly forcing a huge wedge between the classical GOP and the Tea Party, probably with a goal of putting Michelle Bachmann over the top with the angry hardcore of GOP voters giving him a much easier ride to the White House in 2012 especially if they solve the problem and she votes against it anyway.
The GOP telegraphed their moves far, far too publicly and far to openly. It's not so much a tell as a flashing neon sign. Starting with mis-reading what happened in November 2010 - it wasn't so much a swing of the public to the GOP and Tea Party as everybody else didn't turn out. The actual margins of the election "victory" only needed a few thousand votes to change and the outcome would have been far less certain.
Now they've got problems. The core of the GOP, the sane part, which, on a good day I suspect that Boehner and McConnell are part of, knows damn well they can't risk default. They've been clear that the goal is a 1 term Obama presidency, which was the real mistake. If he's going to be a one term president then he'll show them how to play chicken. Because Barack Obama has a career outside of politics that the likes of Cantor, Boehner, McConnell and others would have wet dreams about. He's going to be an international personality with speaking tours, books, non-exec directorship offers that make anything Ms Palin has got look, frankly, a bit pikey.
But for the career politician this is a nightmare. They know damn well they can't default - as Mitch McConnell correctly pointed out, albeit unwisely, there's few outcomes where this does't slam back onto the GOP and stick them with the economy (which, in my mind, is fair enough because a) it's their screw up to start with, and b) they've blocked practically everything that could help). Obama is certainly forcing a huge wedge between the classical GOP and the Tea Party, probably with a goal of putting Michelle Bachmann over the top with the angry hardcore of GOP voters giving him a much easier ride to the White House in 2012 especially if they solve the problem and she votes against it anyway.
I've said before that I wouldn't want to play Poker with this guy. He's "limped in" (http://www.pokertips.org/glossary/w/LIMP+RAISE) through a lot of rounds of betting, letting the GOP put more and more things on the table and be clear what their hand looks like, only to find that, at the end of the game he's got the nuts and things are looking bad.
He *might* be a one term president. But he might also take out the GOP with him.
