The Debt Ceiling Debate....

So, I'm trying to figure out what's going on here, and, frankly, it's pretty hard.  The GOP definitely went into this with a strategy that they needed to dump the mess on Obama and get him hit with the blame.  I suspect the idea was they'd be in a stronger position now than they were back when they had the budget push-out at the end of the lame duck session.

I assume that the sequence was going to involve Obama needing the debt ceiling raised.  The GOP getting on their high horse.  Obama doing his usual thing of offering concessions and then, in panic, folding his A-A's settling something, the GOP get cuts, Obama and the Democrats look bad.

Well, as they say, no plan survives an encounter with the enemy.

Several "bad" things happened:

1) Obama got Bin Laden, so rather than having this debate with a president with approvals in the 40s, they're dealing with one with much higher ratings, which makes a problem

2) The Tea Party GOP newbies are proving to be more of a pain in the rump than people expected back in December - certainly more vocal, and it doesn't help that their poster girl Bachmann is looking to be a credible candidate for the nomination

 

3) The Ryan "budget" plan didn't so much backfire as crash and burn in Hiddenbergesque grandeur 

 

4) Obama called their bluff and seems to be sticking firm on something he knows damn well is playing well with the public.  That the people REALLY suffering don't really think that asking people earning more than $250K, Corporate Jet Owners, the Oil Companies and the like to pay some tax is a problem.  Likewise the optics on people like Orin Hatch asking the middle class and the poor to pay their share really really doesn't play well in the heartland

 

So this really has left the GOP with a problem.  They're now beholden to special interests to keep tax off the table - but they don't have a popular angle to stick to with cuts in services - especially as proposed cuts fall on their core, traditional voters.

 

I'll be interested to see how Obama plays the offer to extend the Debt Ceiling on a clean vote.  I'm tempted to say that he should hit them over and over with the "well, THIS is what you wanted" approach and then have a really big stick to hit them with afterwards.

 

With hindsight this was always a likely outcome after he caved on the budget talks during the lame-duck session.  I suspect he was hoping that the unemployment figures would be better - on the other hand he also now has a great - so I did everything you wanted and the economy is still getting worse line of attack.

 

OTOH - it's still scary listening to Tea Party people whinge and blather about the debt without, apparently having an actual clue in their heads about what it means.