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It's been interesting the last few days, especially watching the right leaning pundits taking a victory lap, much as the Democrats were 2 weeks ago. The amusing thing is, the victory lap was a tad premature for the Democrats and is likely so for the Republicans.
Much is being made that Obama is down by7, ahem, 6 in the Gallup Tracker. This is interesting, as the President was still strong in the Gallup tracker even after other polls had significantly moved towards Romney 2 weeks ago. It's also hard to be sure as they moved from their Registered Voter Screen, to their Likely Voter at the same time (it's worth noting their RV screen is pretty much in line with the rest of the tracking polls.) I'm inclined to think a couple of things. First, Romney had a monster set of polls over last weekend and I'm curious to see what happens when they drop off the tracker over the weekend and into Monday. Second, for whatever reason, the Gallup poll is lagging the others badly. Third, this is not a 6 point race.
Why not?
Well, firstly, the rest of the Polls have the race pretty even, and a non-tracking poll from yesterday has Obama up. That includes the Rassmussen Polls which are, by their own admission, slightly biased towards the GOP. (That's tied today). Secondly, the US doesn't elect by popular vote. This is important because of the third point, if the race were a 6 point race, Obama would be losing in pretty much every swing state, and the polls, even the GOP leaning ones are not showing that.
I do believe that Obama is losing badly in some places... especially the South. It might even be bad enough to have Obama lose the popular vote but win the election. If we look at the data on the Gallup Poll they have Obama losing by 30 points across the South. Thing is. It doesn't really matter if Obama loses, say Texas, by 100%, because he wasn't going to win anyway. So, the thing we have to look at is where Obama needs to win.
And that looks much much stronger for Obama. He's ahead in Ohio, especially in people who've actually voted. He looks to be ahead in Iowa and Wisconsin. He's also not been behind in a SINGLE poll in Nevada. The states he will win plus those give Obama 277 Electoral Votes... He can actually lose Iowa and still win.
This election probably will be tight. But here's my non-voting prediction.
Popular Vote: 50/50 split
Electoral College: 286 Obama - I think Romney takes New Hampshire this time, and Virgina, North Carolina and Florida.
What interests me is the GOP reaction to that scenario, because I think they're genuinely in the mental place democrats were in during 2004, that the President was so unpopular it was inconceivable that anybody would vote for them.
I've got one thing to say to Republicans about that. The Car Industry.
If Obama wins. It's because of the auto bailout.
Much is being made that Obama is down by
Why not?
Well, firstly, the rest of the Polls have the race pretty even, and a non-tracking poll from yesterday has Obama up. That includes the Rassmussen Polls which are, by their own admission, slightly biased towards the GOP. (That's tied today). Secondly, the US doesn't elect by popular vote. This is important because of the third point, if the race were a 6 point race, Obama would be losing in pretty much every swing state, and the polls, even the GOP leaning ones are not showing that.
I do believe that Obama is losing badly in some places... especially the South. It might even be bad enough to have Obama lose the popular vote but win the election. If we look at the data on the Gallup Poll they have Obama losing by 30 points across the South. Thing is. It doesn't really matter if Obama loses, say Texas, by 100%, because he wasn't going to win anyway. So, the thing we have to look at is where Obama needs to win.
And that looks much much stronger for Obama. He's ahead in Ohio, especially in people who've actually voted. He looks to be ahead in Iowa and Wisconsin. He's also not been behind in a SINGLE poll in Nevada. The states he will win plus those give Obama 277 Electoral Votes... He can actually lose Iowa and still win.
This election probably will be tight. But here's my non-voting prediction.
Popular Vote: 50/50 split
Electoral College: 286 Obama - I think Romney takes New Hampshire this time, and Virgina, North Carolina and Florida.
What interests me is the GOP reaction to that scenario, because I think they're genuinely in the mental place democrats were in during 2004, that the President was so unpopular it was inconceivable that anybody would vote for them.
I've got one thing to say to Republicans about that. The Car Industry.
If Obama wins. It's because of the auto bailout.
