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Thoughts on the Future
Oct. 16th, 2003 01:42 pmI've been reading some reactions to the recent Chinese launch. Very interesting.
Ranging from the ultra Libertarian view which is that if the government is involved then it's doomed, through to this is the start of a new space race.
I think I lean towards the later perspective myself, although not in the way that some people online seem to be suggesting.
One of the common complaints is that Russia and the US did this 40 years and therefore what’s all the fuss about. This is a terribly simple argument and like most simple arguments is fundamentally misleading. Essentially the space capabilities of Russian and the US for manned activities are not significantly more advanced than they were in the 1970’s. So, for China to catch up they really only have to catch up a decade rather than 4 decades. They also have a lot of examples of how not to do things. The ISS is a prime example of how not to do a space station.
China already have plans for a “space laboratory”. My guess is they’ll start with a simple man-tended affair and, in about 10 years, have a Mir style space station. We’ll still have the ISS and probably a capsule replacement for the shuttle. After that, China can continue to develop incrementally and slowly.
My current guess is that this will spur on something of a regional “space-race”. India have made no secret of their plans and they are well placed to do something about it – it’ll probably be about another decade but I expect India will be #4 manned space effort. The wild card is then whether Japan will sit back with China ahead of them in this prestige field without re-activating their rather ambitious plans of the 80’s.
I’m not convinced the Americans will notice myself, but they might.
There may be some private sub-orbital hops but there is no real upgrade path I can see from these private efforts to a real private manned space programme. Consequently it will remain with NASA and the government to do the grandstanding.
I’ll still offer good odds a NASA led team will be on Mars first, but those might shorten over the next 20 years.
Ranging from the ultra Libertarian view which is that if the government is involved then it's doomed, through to this is the start of a new space race.
I think I lean towards the later perspective myself, although not in the way that some people online seem to be suggesting.
One of the common complaints is that Russia and the US did this 40 years and therefore what’s all the fuss about. This is a terribly simple argument and like most simple arguments is fundamentally misleading. Essentially the space capabilities of Russian and the US for manned activities are not significantly more advanced than they were in the 1970’s. So, for China to catch up they really only have to catch up a decade rather than 4 decades. They also have a lot of examples of how not to do things. The ISS is a prime example of how not to do a space station.
China already have plans for a “space laboratory”. My guess is they’ll start with a simple man-tended affair and, in about 10 years, have a Mir style space station. We’ll still have the ISS and probably a capsule replacement for the shuttle. After that, China can continue to develop incrementally and slowly.
My current guess is that this will spur on something of a regional “space-race”. India have made no secret of their plans and they are well placed to do something about it – it’ll probably be about another decade but I expect India will be #4 manned space effort. The wild card is then whether Japan will sit back with China ahead of them in this prestige field without re-activating their rather ambitious plans of the 80’s.
I’m not convinced the Americans will notice myself, but they might.
There may be some private sub-orbital hops but there is no real upgrade path I can see from these private efforts to a real private manned space programme. Consequently it will remain with NASA and the government to do the grandstanding.
I’ll still offer good odds a NASA led team will be on Mars first, but those might shorten over the next 20 years.
