Greece eh?
Jun. 29th, 2015 02:25 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
I've been keeping an eye on this, as you do. It does have that grim feeling that people may have had in 1913/14 while the wise heads agreed war was impossible, the events just kept unfurling.
As I remarked on Facebook, the problem with negiating agressively with somebody who has nothing to lose, is that they might, in fact, decide that they have nothing to lose. It feels like we're at that point.
We could discuss that the Euro project was potentially doomed from the outset for various factors:
At the crux of this is the idea that as long as you live 'within your means' and pay down your debt, confidence and growth will return to your economy. The problem here is when your economy is running with 25-30% of the workforce unemployed, where does all the demand come from for there to be confidence? I got nothing - there isn't a way to do it.
It has been suggested to me that all this posturing is purely because the Germans, ECB and the Commission are ok with losing Greece, as long as it shows the Spanish, Italians and Irish that they better not think about breaking ranks. That feels potentially true especially after the tirade from the Commission Chair today where he basically demanded to know who the fuck these voters thought they were and what gave them any say in running their country?
What indeed?
As I remarked on Facebook, the problem with negiating agressively with somebody who has nothing to lose, is that they might, in fact, decide that they have nothing to lose. It feels like we're at that point.
We could discuss that the Euro project was potentially doomed from the outset for various factors:
- currency union without political union is unstable - how do you impose rules on people who are doing stupid stuff with your largess
- Germany joined at the wrong part of it's business cycle when the value of the Mark was much lower than it had been, giving Germany a HUGE price advantage in the early stages
- expecting members of your currency to depress their economies and GDPs to avoid other members experiencing any relative inflation isn't the right way to do things
At the crux of this is the idea that as long as you live 'within your means' and pay down your debt, confidence and growth will return to your economy. The problem here is when your economy is running with 25-30% of the workforce unemployed, where does all the demand come from for there to be confidence? I got nothing - there isn't a way to do it.
It has been suggested to me that all this posturing is purely because the Germans, ECB and the Commission are ok with losing Greece, as long as it shows the Spanish, Italians and Irish that they better not think about breaking ranks. That feels potentially true especially after the tirade from the Commission Chair today where he basically demanded to know who the fuck these voters thought they were and what gave them any say in running their country?
What indeed?
no subject
Date: 2015-06-29 09:40 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2015-06-29 10:27 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2015-06-30 04:59 am (UTC)http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/09/time-end-pretence-greece-never-repay-bailout-loans
no subject
Date: 2015-06-30 02:07 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2015-06-30 06:01 pm (UTC)Since the figures were fudged politically to allow Greece to join the euro, the Greeks might feel that EU is obligated to try and keep them going if they want the euro with austerity. But the EU is a Christian Democrat/neoliberal club now and there's not much sympathy for a far left government in Athens playing silly buggers. There's always going to be a clash between democracy, the bond markets and making sure the supermarket shelves and cash machines are kept full. Look at Britain and the IMF in 1976 or, indeed, the various other devaluation crisis (1947, 1967 and 1992 - so not just Labour).