daveon: (Default)
[personal profile] daveon
Firstly, my original methodology was a bit wonky, I was working off the published nominations that got more than about 3% of the votes cast.  Unfortunately, not very many years have published details on the number of Unique Works nominated compared to the Ballots.  I have 3 relatively easy to look at ones though.  2009, 2013 and 2014.

Tables don't seem to be easy here, so I'll do what I can:

Total Ballots cast Best Novel | Novelette | Novella | Short Story
2009 - 629 | 373 | 337 | 448
2013 - 1113 |616 | 587 | 662
2014 - 1595 | 728 | 847 | 865

Unique Works Nominated Best Novel | Novelette | Novella | Short Story
2009 - 335 | 233 | 122 | 470
2013 - 475 | 252 | 135 | 569
2014 - 648 | 290 | 206 | 578

I've already covered the works garnering about 3% of the total votes and what happened to them.

Most interesting for me: the ratio of unique works nominated to the number of ballots cast for Best Novel has stayed REALLY very consistent over this whole time.

The actual ratio of people who vote for Best Novel and then vote for a short category is also relatively consistent.  What is not consistent is effect on the works being nominated - relatively speaking fewer and fewer short stories are being nominated over time.

What is unclear to me is how many unique works are actually published in each category and how much of this is simply diminishing returns in a field that already was fairly widely read.

Either way, given these results and how often in recent years some of the short categories have struggled to get enough stories which hit 5% it's indicative of just how effective a strong 'slate' is and how little evidence there really is of much of one historically.

Date: 2015-05-01 09:51 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] cobrabay.livejournal.com
You seem to be missing a number in the Total Ballots cast line, i.e.
2009 - 629 | 373 | 448
only has 3 columns unlike the 4 for the rest.
Those numbers are a bit of a surprise, that is a heck of a long tail.

Date: 2015-05-01 10:05 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] daveon.livejournal.com
Ah, fixed that... it was consistent with the other numbers though, and yes, I was surprised. I was actually expecting the nominations to stay as a relatively constant ratio of the people voting but apparently no.

Date: 2015-05-01 09:53 pm (UTC)
timill: (pic#)
From: [personal profile] timill
You're missing a number in the 2009 Ballots Cast line.

Date: 2015-05-01 10:04 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] daveon.livejournal.com
Ah, thanks, fixed.

Date: 2015-05-07 03:20 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] owlmirror36.livejournal.com
You might want to try using the <pre> tag, eg:
Total Ballots cast Best Novel | Novelette | Novella | Short Story
2009 -                    629 |       373 |     337 |         448
2013 -                   1113 |       616 |     587 |         662
2014 -                   1595 |       728 |     847 |         865

Unique Works Nominated Best Novel | Novelette | Novella | Short Story 2009 - 335 | 233 | 122 | 470 2013 - 475 | 252 | 135 | 569 2014 - 648 | 290 | 206 | 578




(you may have your own preferred way of formatting tables; if so, use a fixed-width font in a text editor to massage what I put above)

Date: 2015-05-07 03:21 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] owlmirror36.livejournal.com
(snarls at the way the LJ theme indents and mangles the tables)

Date: 2015-05-07 04:35 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] daveon.livejournal.com
Yes, that's one of the problems - they also mangle various bits of HTML :(

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